Market Recap

Now that the people in the middle east have discovered that they do indeed want things like democracy… and food they entire region has set upon the path of change… to civil war, extremism, democracy and everything in between, all located somewhere in the 18th century. We in the west have discovered: yes we can print money, but what we can’t print is oil. Now we can let the fuckery truly begin. The US is redeploying it’s naval assets to the Middle East and the Mediterranean with alacrity to ‘keep every option open’ – read another costly war they can’t afford – and with oil this high the economy is feeling significant pain, especially as turbo Ben has been diligently destroying the purchasing power of the middle class – and that class in its entirety. I believe Ben envisions a return to a simpler time, where land owning gentry ruled over great swaths of rabble and told them things like “mind your turnips”. In any case it is important to remember that the stock market IS the economy and the real economy will just lift itself by it’s bootstraps.

But I digress, overall today was not a pretty day for the bulls. We saw the gains from the last 3 days largely erased and printed a lower high on many of the indices as well as on some leading indicators, all on significant volume. The day was largely frustrating as we were basically in a downtrend from the initial gap up, presenting very few short entry points – if thats your thing – on top of bringing pain to the longs. The market seems to be somewhat news driven, though I feel people expecting the standard first of the month 2%-3% upside contributed to it as well.

I can’t say we will trade down from here – maybe some people have those powers, I am not one of them. But what I do see here is making me much more cautious. I won’t go out and short this market – I’ve been caught leaning the wrong way before and its an experience I don’t care to repeat – but what I will do is raise my stops, immediately sell positions where I don’t like the action and sell into strength.
Going into today I was long calls in EDC, SLW, NGD, GTE, BG and ABX. I got stopped out of EDC very early on for a small loss. Everything else in the portfolio was up large aside from BG. For those 5 people who bothered to read this, as well as previous blogs, I hope you got yourself some of the NGD lovin’. It goes much higher from here, as it has entered a vacuum.
TJWP
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