So I Hedged

So here goes an aggressive rambling, but after drinking a 12 pack all I have left is my gut feeling and that gut feeling is satisfaction having consumed more grain than Libya.

I don’t know what it was I started to doubt the Bernanke and the POMO. There is probably a greater probability that I will be wrong with 10-14bil in POMO expected over the next two days, but where will this “sell off” end? I bought myself some $20 OTM calls on DXD – a leveraged short of the Dow Jones.

I am still 95% long Gold, I believe I’ve missed the silver bandwagon – or bubble depending on how bearish you are. Gold futures do not seem to want to disappoint and appear to have established a nice foundation at the $1395 range, one that could be tested with upward movement by the bulls tomorrow/Friday or a reversal in the middle eastern democracy epidemic, the later I find very unlikely.

I don’t consider myself bullish or bearish, but I will view the announced subsidies for Saudi Arabia citizens as a bear. If you’re going to issue 37 billion dollars as a bribe to your citizens, I find it very unlikely that any democracy movement will be squashed. But, then again the living conditions, smaller population, and abundant profits enjoyed by that country under their monarchy might be more difficult that other nations to overthrow.

So quickly establishing a Cole’s Notes version of news to gauge tomorrow’s market reaction:

Bears:
Crude futures touched $100
US Housing Crash damage/fallout was under reported
Increases in jobless claims
Libya keeps on truckin’
Saudi King shows fear
The UN/World Leaders are unsure how to respond to Gadhafi because a certain country needs their Oil.
PMs trading higher
Dr. Copper trending downwards

Bulls:
Dow, Spy, Nasdaq futures slightly up as I write this (although they were well up before open this morning….)
Ben Bernanke + Pomo
Fallout from Egypt’s “correction”

In summary, you either believe Ben Bernanke has redeployed a battalion of Black Hawks to make it rain on Wall St. or you are fearful of further OPEC tightening/price increases. Either way, even with Crude at these levels (fuck that Brent stockpile bullshit, a economy that runs on imported oil won’t survive forever) and an economy, which is based on manufacturing facing rising metal/commodity, oil and food costs and cannot self sustain sometimes has to show some weakness (and a global demand that doesn’t want to buy overpriced shitty products).

More than likely Bernanke is in this bitch, with the terror.

Anyways, to follow up some of my last posts: Still holding my position in Avion (AVR.TO) for a modest 5% thus far, dumped AVL.TO on the open for an eyelash above 10% (got sold off midday, I hope you took profits), bought a rather large position in CBS.V (Bard Ventures) to hang on to for a long time, and established a position in NGD following TJWP deeper into the PM train.

If we go up tomorrow, I’m making money. If we go further down tomorrow, I’m probably making more money – golds still going up.

95% long, 5% short.



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